DIPOL- Deep Transformation Scenarios for Informing the Climate Policy Discourse

Start of Project 09/2018
End of Project 08/2021

The project aims to outline possible development paths for Europe and Germany that are consistent with limiting the rise in global average temperature to well below 2°C, as agreed in the Paris Agreement of 2015. Central to the project is a co-design of quantitative scenarios with key stakeholders from civil society, business and policy making. The exchange with stakeholders ensures both the societal relevance of the scenario building process and provides participating stakeholders with useful insights for their work and strategies by 2050. The pathways are primarily exploring:

  1. speed and depth of the transformation towards a low carbon society;
  2. sectoral bottlenecks of decarbonisation; and 3) CO2 removal from the atmosphere to neutralize residual emissions. The analysis of alternative climate change mitigation pathways is complemented by micro-simulations to explore distributional implications for households and possible regressive effects of climate change policies.

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Update on the project´s process

Three stakeholder workshops are planned during the course of the project. 
The first stakeholder workshop brought together stakeholders from academia, business and civil society to outline future scenarios and possible transformation pathways for Europe and Germany to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050. 
In the second stakeholder workshop in spring 2020 the modeling teams presented how the stakeholder contributions from the first workshop in March 2019 were used to develop different scenario narratives. These narratives represent a range of possible futures in terms of technological, political and behavioral changes. Initial findings from this scenario process were presented and discussed with the stakeholders. Prior to the third, final, stakeholder workshop which is planned for autumn 2021, first results were presented in a webinar. These results indicate, that all three dimensions of technology, policy, and behavioral change are valuable contributions to reducing the transformation challenge.



Strefler, J., Bauer, N., Humpenöder, F., Klein, D., Popp, A., Kriegler, E., 2021. Carbon dioxide removal technologies are not born equal. Environmental Research Letters, in press. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0a11.

Alberini, A., Horvath, M. and Vance, C., 2021. Drive less, drive better, or both? Behavioral adjustments to fuel price changes in Germany. Ruhr Economic Papers #892, DOI: 10.4419/96973032

Frondel, M., Marggraf, C., Sommer, S. and Vance, C., 2021. Reducing vehicle cold start emissions through carbon pricing: evidence from Germany. Environmental Research Letters, 16(3),

Sommer, S. and Vance, C., 2021. Do more chargers mean more electric cars?  Ruhr Economic Papers #893, DOI: 10.4419/96973033


Bauer, N., Bertram, C., Schultes, A., Klein, D., Luderer, G., Kriegler, E., Popp, A., Edenhofer, O., 2020. Quantification of an efficiency–sovereignty trade-off in climate policy. Nature 588, 261–266. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2982-5