In the SLICE project, we aim to gain a deep understanding of the channels through which climate extremes such as fluvial floods, tropical cyclones and droughts impact socioeconomic development in the short- and long-term. Socioeconomic impacts are assessed on the household as well as on the macroeconomic level in the present climate as well as for different climate and socioeconomic futures. This allows us to estimate climate impacts that may be avoided by stringent emission reductions. These analyses aim at identifying high-risk countries with high adaptive pressures and vulnerable groups within countries in order to support decision-makers in implementing the Paris Agreement.
Update on the project´s process
The development of the empirical and dynamical models is largely completed. These models have already been employed to assess the short- and long-term impacts of historical tropical cyclones, fluvial floods, and droughts in focus countries on the households level as well as globally on the macroeconomic level. These studies are currently finalized or have already been submitted to renowned peer-reviewed journals and form the basis for the ongoing analysis of the socioeconomic impacts of these climate extremes for different climate change futures.
Preliminary results of the project
On the household level, we are conducting empirical analyses on socioeconomic impacts of climate extremes for Malawi (droughts), Nigeria (floods) and the Philippines (tropical cyclones). We find that i) more frequent moderate droughts can negatively impact child health in agricultural households in Malawi, ii) education has the potential to increase the resilience of households against flood extremes in Nigeria and iii) intense winds and precipitation from tropical cyclones affect household expenditures in the Philippines. The main climate risks and implications for these countries have been summarized in stakeholder-friendly climate risk profiles.
On the macroeconomic level, we find that fluvial floods and tropical cyclones can deteriorate economic growth in the affected countries for more than a decade. However, growth losses can be efficiently mitigated by policy measures fostering household consumption and government
The graphic depicts the country-specific vulnerability of per-capita economic growth accumulated over 15 years in the aftermath of tropical cyclones in the period 1980-2010. Box centers give estimates of accumulated growth responses with boxes spanning the standard error range. Box colors show significance at 90% level with red and green boxes showing significant negative and positive long-term impact, respectively. Non-significant results are indicated by grey boxes and greyed out country names. Growth in most countries is affected negatively by tropical cyclones in the long-term. Together with the projection that very intense tropical cyclones will become more frequent under global warming, this result could suggest that, in strongly affected “hot-spot” countries, tropical cyclones have the potential to reduce future development prospects in the absence of further adaptation measures. Importantly, we do not find lower vulnerabilities for developed countries so development alone does not seem to protect against tropical cyclone induced growth losses (reproduced from Krichene et al. 2021, World Development, 144, 105475).
Krichene, H., Geiger, T., Frieler, K., Willner, S., Sauer, I., & Otto, C. (2021). The Impacts of Tropical Cyclones and Fluvial Floods on Economic Growth – Empirical Evidence on Transmission Channels at Different Levels of Development. World Development, 144, 105475 (2021)
Sauer, I., Reese, R., Otto, C., Geiger, T., Willner, S., Guillod, B., Bresch, D.,Frieler, K. (2021). Climate Signals in River Flood Damages Emerge under Sound Regional Disaggregation. Nature Communications 12, 2128.
Geiger, T., Gütschow, J., Bresch, D. N., Emanuel, K., & Frieler, K. (2021). Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure. Nature Climate Change, 11(10), 861–866. doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9
Falkendal, T., Otto, C., Schewe, J., Jägermeyr, J., Konar, M., Kummu, M., Watkins B., Puma, M. J. (2021). “Grain export restrictions during COVID-19 risk food insecurity in many low- and middle-income countries”. Nature Food, 2(1), 11–14.
Otto, C., Piontek, F., Kalkuhl, M., and Frieler, F. (2020) "Event-based models to understand the scale of the impact of extremes." Nature Energy 5, no. 2, 111-114.